Paris Perspective #12: Putin, Paris and power - Oleg Kobtzeff
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Relations between Russia's sphere of influence and its Western rivals is back in the spotlight after a Ryanair flight was forcibly diverted on the orders of Belarus's Alexander Lukashenko. This edition of Paris Perspective looks at post-Cold War power play and France's potential role as mediator.
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The recent interception of a flight from Greece to Lithuania by a Belorussian fighter jet over claims there was a bomb on board, led to an international outcry when it was revealed the plane was actually diverted to Minsk to arrest opposition journalist Roman Protassevitch and his girlfriend Sofia Sapéga.
Western powers reacted swiftly, increasing targeted sanctions on Belarussian businesses in a bid to warn President Alexander Lukashenko that the hijacking of the Ryanair flight to Vilnius was tantamount to state piracy, in violation of the International Civil Aviation Organisation’s Chicago Convention, which protects the sovereignty of nations’ airspace.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin moved fast to condemn EU and US “over reaction” to Lukashenko’s move, summoning his Belarussian counterpart to a summit in Sochi, where both leaders doubled-down on their mutual opposition to dissent, presenting a united front by slamming "Western interference in local affairs”.
Last month’s debacle, however, has highlighted the differences that remain between the old Eastern and Western blocs, and have seen the rhetoric between Moscow and Nato ratcheted up a few notches. Russia is set to deploy 20 new military units to its western border and undertake joint military exercises with Belarus to counter perceived “aggression” from Nato maritime patrols, military drills and US surveillance flights over what was traditionally Soviet Russia’s “zone of influence”.
Will Macron become Europe's 'Great White Knight'?
Enter the 'Great White Knight'?
Since his election in 2017, many have speculated that French President Emmanuel Macron would fast become Europe’s “White Knight” when dealing with international spats between old rivals, finding common ground with adversaries while extolling the virtues of a united Europe.
Anglea Merkel’s power is waning, as she prepares to step down as Chancellor of Germany after 15 years at the helm this September. Meanwhile the European Union has been distracted by Brexit and Covid-19. So is it a given that Macron is first in line to fill the power vacuum?
Not so fast, says Oleg Kobtzeff, Associate Professor of Politics & History at the American University of Paris: "He has certain assets, but 'Great White Knight'? Probably not."
Kobtzeff continues: “The opportunity is there because Angela Merkel is on her way out, and she was the great buffer between Russia and the rest of the EU and the West.
“She was the great conciliator, the great mediator with a very strong and strategic role,” says Kobtzeff, reminding us that as an East German - born during the Cold War - Merkel speaks fluent Russian, while Putin - as former head of the KGB - in turn, speaks fluent German.
“The future of German power is uncertain. So that's asset number one for Macron. There's a throne there that is going to be empty very soon.
“The second asset for Macron is the Quai d’Orsay - the French institutions of foreign policy and foreign affairs,” which, says Kobtzeff, have been the symbol of France’s soft power worldwide for decades.
Conciliatory relations
In recent years, France’s diplomatic relations with Russia have been more conciliatory than other Western powers, especially during the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which led to the annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014.
The move by Moscow was viewed with incredulity by Western governments, who were quick to underline that it set a dangerous precedent reminiscent of Nazi expansionism in the 1930s.
“Macron was part of François Hollande’s government,” says Kobtzeff, “and Hollande did a lot more for East-West relations when the Ukrainian crisis began - much more than Angela Merkel – by advancing the Minsk agreements.”
Does Vladimir Putin see himself as a bridge builder between Paris and Ankara?
Western double-standards
The latest bout of Western outrage at Protassevich’s arrest was scoffed at by Moscow, which was quick to call-out the “double-standards” of the European Union and United States.
This referred to an incident in 2013 - during the Obama administration - when Bolivian President Evo Morales’ plane was denied clearance over European airspace following a visit to Moscow, as it was thought US whistleblower Edward Snowden was on board. The plane was forced to land in Austria.
To Russia, forcing a head of state’s plane to land is more egregious than Lukashenko’s scrambling of a Mig-29 fighter jet to apprehend a journalist he believes is a “dissident” and “national security threat”. So does the Kremlin have a point when it says double-standards are in play?
“Unfortunately, yes,” says the politics and history professor, but the issue of Putin supporting Lukashenko is essentially a “Muscovite – Minsk affair.”
For him, this is all part of a wider strategy to make Lukashenko more dependent on Moscow. Following last year’s mass protests against the re-election of “Europe’s last dictator”, Moscow viewed the situation as completely out of control and dangerous.
“Russia was actually preparing to replace Lukashenko with more reasonable candidates. He has been a troublemaker for Moscow since at least 2014, so this was an excellent opportunity to rein him back into the fold,” Kobtzeff asserts: “He’s done something extremely dangerous and stupid. With Moscow defending him, he becomes a vassal of the Kremlin.”
If anything, Lukashenko’s act of piracy has shown him to be incompetent, an amateur in global affairs and extremely dangerous - despite clinging onto power for over 27 years.
Common conflict of interest
For the fresh-faced Macron who's finishing up his first five-year mandate as president, has Putin done him a favour by pulling Lukashenko back in step with Russia’s interests?
Despite his youth, Macron is no amateur, says Kobtzeff: “He’s an excellent politician for the internal politics of France. A kid in his 30s could not have come through the ranks to become president without extremely strong back-up, including the whole apparatus of people in power - that certainly includes the Quai d’Orsay.”
If Macron wins a second mandate in 2022, he will be looked to for guidance when dealing with Putin and will have to build on the common ground Paris and Moscow share on an international level.
France has €15billion worth of investment in Russia - so trade has its place. And even in the early 1960s, at the height of the Cold War, Paris and Moscow have cooperated in industry – especially the space sector.
But one particular flash-point between Russia and France, is resurgent Russian influence on the African continent. While Moscow cannot abide foreign interference in its traditional spheres of influence - be it Ukraine or Georgia - how has Russia's intervention in the Central African Republic been viewed by former colonial power, France?
Kobtzeff believes many French specialists in foreign and African policy – particularly those within the Françafrique neo-colonial power dynamic – feel threatened: “Russian presence [in the CAR in 2021] is just as threatening to them as East German troops deployed in Mozambique or Angola during the Cold War.” He adds that French foreign policy institutions would also be wary of the Russians and Chinese encroaching on their “back yard”.
To conclude, Kobtzeff says: “The Quai d’Orsay would certainly perceive the situation as threatening.”
Written, produced & presented by David Coffey
Recorded by Julien Leng & Cécile Pompeani
Edited & mixed by Thibault Baduel & Vincent Pora
Full Interview - Putin, Paris and Power - Oleg Kobtzeff
Oleg Kobtzeff is an Associate Professor of Politics & History at the American University of Paris.
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